Slideshow: North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un

The U.S. is deploying 14 new ground-based missile interceptors in Alaska to counter renewed nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said Friday.

The new interceptors will be based at Fort Greely, an Army launch site about 100 miles southeast of Fairbanks, Alaska, and are projected to be fully deployed by 2017, Hagel said. The additions will bring the U.S.-based ground interceptor deployment from 30 to 44, including four that are based in California.

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That will boost U.S. missile defense capability by 50 percent and "make clear to the world that the United States stands firm against aggression," he said in a briefing at the Pentagon.

The announcement comes as North Korea has been making bellicose threats to void the armistice that ended the Korean War and launch a nuclear attack on the U.S. The U.S. and South Korea began annual military drills this week despite the North Korean threats.

Hagel said the U.S. would also shift some "resources," which he didn't specify, from the delayed Aegis anti-missile program in Europe to U.S.-based defenses, saying the Aegis program was "lagging" because of reduced congressional funding. And he reiterated previously announced plans to add a second U.S. anti-ballistic missile radar installation in Japan.

Taking all of the moves together, "we will be able to add protection against missiles from Iran sooner while also proving protection against the threat from North Korea," he said.

Even before the announcement, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., a member of the Armed Services Committee, criticized the news, saying it was too little and too late.

"I applaud the Obama administration's decision, but it shouldn't have taken the predictable saber-rattling from North Korea to bring this about," Ayotte said in a statement Friday. 

Pointing to Iran's nuclear program, Ayotte called on the Obama administration to "move expeditiously to construct an East Coast missile defense site."

"Americans living in the Eastern United States should have the same level of missile defense protection as those in the West," she said.

Courtney Kube and Kelly O'Donnell of NBC News contributed to this report. Follow M. Alex Johnson on Twitter and Facebook.

Watch US News videos on NBCNews.com

This story was originally published on Fri Mar 15, 2013 7:28 PM EDT

U.S. officials and others who track the nuclear capabilities and internal politics of North Korea say they don't see any indications that Pyongyang is planning an imminent nuclear test, but they caution that after the embarrassment of Friday's failed rocket launch it could move provocatively and quickly to do so.

"We consider it at any time a possibility," said one U.S. official who follows North Korea and who briefed NBC News on condition of anonymity. "Might kind of ruin the party or enhance it", he added, referring to Sunday's celebration of North Korean founder Kim il-Sung's 100th birthday.

The officials and experts who spoke with NBC News on Friday questioned whether the North would want to risk another, far greater embarrassment so quickly after the rocket failure. But if it does conduct a nuclear test, it will be following a long tradition of crisis escalation, they said. 

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The usual sequence in a North Korea crisis is threefold, said a second U.S. official, also speaking on condition of anonymity. First, the North does something untoward, and then the West protest, the official said. In response, North Korea does something to provoke even more reaction and get more attention, with the goal of ultimately driving the U.S. to the negotiating table. In this case that third piece could be the nuclear test, the official said. 

"What surprises me is how quickly this is moving. Things that used to happen in years (in North Korea) are now happening in months," said the second official. "When things start spinning fast, I don’t think that's stable, that's safe. So that's concerning.”

David Phillips of Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights and a North Korea expert, said the government of Kim il-Un does not have to "go nuclear." It has at least two options if it decides to make noise on the international stage: a renewed attack on South Korean islands or naval vessels, or a nuclear test, he said.

"One would be a serious provocation," Phillips said of the first option; the other would quickly become a "global issue."

U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials and experts note that there have been recent preparations at North Korea’s P'unggye-yok test site that could signal a nuclear test, but said those preparations have not intensified over the last few days.

David Albright of the Institute for Science in International Security said his analysts have been monitoring the site almost daily using commercial satellite imagery, but have detected only some movement of earth at a tunnel, which may or may not be related to a test.  Albright agrees that a test would quickly move the North's nuclear program to the forefront of global crises.

One thing that could fuel the crisis, he said, would be for the West, particularly Japan and South Korea, to ridicule the failure of Friday’s satellite launch. 

"It makes the North Korean military mad,” said Albright, who has visited Pyongyang and met with senior North Korean officials. “If they feel that they are now perceived as weaker, they may react to re-establish their deterrence capabilities."

That, he says, could lead to a further escalation of tensions in the region.

"It would further lock in the view that North Korea does not intend to give up nuclear weapons and it would greatly worry Japan, which always feels it is in the North Korean bull’s-eye,” he said. “Among the public in both Japan and North Korea, it would greatly stimulate the debate that they should get nuclear weapons."

Particularly worrisome for the U.S., senior security officials told NBC News, is the possibility that North Korea would test more sophisticated weapons designs – hydrogen bombs or so-called "boosted fission" weapons, both with yields that far exceed those of nuclear designs. Either a "boosted fission" weapon or a hydrogen bomb would be expect to have yields in the tens or hundreds of kilotons, or many times greater than the bombs the U.S. dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan, at the end of World War II.   

It is also possible the North Koreans could detonate a device fueled by highly enriched uranium (HEU) rather than plutonium, the officials said. . The North Koreans have used plutonium exclusively in the first two tests nuclear in 2006 and 2009.

Any of those tests -- HEU, "boosted fission" or thermonuclear-- would show that the North had more advanced weapons design and development capabilities, they said.

Indeed, U.S. officials said North Korea has done significant research into both "boosted fission" and thermonuclear weapons development in recent years. However, without testing, it couldn't be certain that such a weapon is reliable. One constraint, they said, would be whether the geology around the test site could withstand a test.

One U.S. official also said that U.S. intelligence might not be able to immediately confirm or contradict North Korean claims in the wake of such a test.

"If they do a very high yield test and get into multiple tens of kilotons, and they say it's thermonuclear, unless we have some kind of particulate sampling data, I'm not sure what we're going to say,” said one official. “And their statements could add to the confusion."

Phillips, the Columbia University expert, noted that a North Korean nuclear test could complicate U.S. proliferation priorities. What's more significant, he asked, an Iranian program that has been slogging along or a North Korean program with more than a dozen nuclear weapons, some of which that could have yields in the hundreds of kilotons.

“The Obama administration has been focused on Iran as the primary nuclear threat and proliferator. Many believe that Iran is a rational actor that will serve its own national interest and preserve the regime,” said Phillips. “The same can’t be said about North Korea. Successive generation of leaders in North Korea have shown that they are unpredictable and erratic. The recent satellite launch was designed to burnish the authority of its news leader. Instead its had the opposite effect internationally. ... There is now real risk of a nuclear test, which may now be accelerated by the launch failure and that’s the problem.”

And despite the failure of Friday’s rocket launch, U.S. officials say they expect North Korea to continue trying to develop a missile capability that could deliver a warhead big enough to destroy a U.S. city.

“The intelligence community has assessed for a number of years,” said the first U.S. official, “that this (launch) vehicle would be capable of reaching the continental United States -- beyond Alaska, beyond Hawaii --  with a payload of several hundred kilotons.”

PYONGYANG, North Korea – Quickly after the failed launch of the Kwangmyongsong-2 rocket, two things became abundantly clear: We, the foreign press corps brought in to cover the launch, knew far less about it than our colleagues outside of North Korea, and the only people we would be informing about anything today would be our government-assigned guides/minders.

Many of the foreign news crews – which have been in Pyongyang for about a week – had been assured multiple times by our minders that we would get the opportunity to witness the launch. Two large video screens installed in our little hotel newsroom late Thursday appeared to validate that belief.

Between scuttlebutt gleaned from our research and talks with North Korean space officials, many of us believed that our coverage would begin with an early wake-up call Friday morning from our minders whenever they got the word.

Instead, that wake-up call came not from any North Korean officials, but from NBC’s foreign news desk, prompting us to head down to the newsroom – the only place in the hotel where we can access the Internet – to confirm what was happening.

But what was there to report? Inside the newsroom, the video screens were blank, and local North Korean TV was not showing any rocket coverage. A section of the newsroom seemingly set-up as a post-launch podium for North Korean officials to answer questions was staffed by a disinterested minder.

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Meanwhile, on Twitter and foreign news websites, initial reports of a botched launch were being followed up with details about the failure: the location of the debris, what the rocket looked like before it exploded and initial reaction from foreign governments on the incident.

Yet the North Koreans minders were idly chatting among themselves, completely oblivious to the botched launch that just happened, and apparently planning for just another day of guiding us on another highly orchestrated visit through the city.

That sense was confirmed as I ran back and forth between the newsroom and the live shot positions outdoors. “Please be ready to go this morning for a music festival,” said one minder as he cornered me on a trip back to the newsroom.

“There is no way we’re going on that trip!” I replied. “You know the satellite launch failed today, right?”

My declaration was met with an incredulous stare before the minder slowly turned around and walked away. It was a scene replayed multiple times as minders, unsure what all the excitement was about, corralled journalists and had the news broken to them.

This led to a mass exodus of minders.

North Korea faces rocket reality: Failure is an option

Ironically though, at the one moment when we the press suddenly had the most freedom we’d had all trip, no one had the means to take advantage and begin covering the North Korean side of the launch.
  
As the pandemonium of the initial push to break news passed, many of us expected the North Koreans to call some sort of press conference to acknowledge the failure and explain what had gone wrong.

But the podium remained unused and the pokerfaced North Koreans in the room gave no hint that we would hear anything from the government about the launch failure. A terse statement on North Korean state television had acknowledged the rocket’s flop into the water to the public, but nothing else.

The lone statement was a great first step toward North Korea becoming a more open and possibly reflects a quiet confidence in the country’s new leader, Kim Jong-un.

Unlike his father, Kim Jong-il, who covered up past launch failures, the younger Kim has demonstrated a degree of assuredness in publicly acknowledging the rocket disaster to his people.

This certainly doesn’t mean that the country is turning over a new leaf – after all, the rocket test stunt itself shows that bad habits die hard, if at all. However, Kim’s concession suggests that this young, new leader may not strictly follow the game plan of his predecessors.

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The five-day window for the launch of a North Korean rocket mounted with an observation satellite opened Thursday as the rest of the world waits to see if Pyongyang will defy international warnings and go ahead with the controversial mission.

NBC News is in North Korea to observe the launch with space expert James Oberg. With a 22-year career as a space engineer in support of NASA’s spaceflight operations, Oberg has the experience and technical expertise to determine the veracity of North Korea’s claims about this mission.

Oberg answered reader questions for an hour earlier today. The questions and answers were extremely engaging and informative.
Click below to replay the chat.

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Read some of Oberg's reports on North Korea's space program:

What happens if North Korea's satellite fails?

North Koreans desperate for Western approval of launch

North Korea's 'unconvincing' answers to satellite questions

NBC space expert on North Korea satellite launch: 'It's not a military missile...but it's darn close'

PYONGYANG, North Korea – With just one day before North Korea’s expected controversial satellite launch to commemorate the 100th birthday of “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung, the government invited journalists to view its Mission Control – the nerve center where the rocket and satellite will be monitored and guided from.

Coming after a press conference the day before, this was likely our last preview of preparations before launch. It was important because it gave us a critical view of the real operators of the satellite. 

Following the visit, NBC News sat down with 22-year NASA Mission Control veteran and NBC space consultant James Oberg to discuss what he learned from this visit and his expectations for the launch.

First off, what were your impressions of the Control Center? Was it as you expected it to be?
It looked like a real control center – from the outside as well as the inside. First the communications links – two communications domes and a pretty hefty antenna farm on top of the hill – looked real, and inside the displays appeared logical and made sense to me.

One difference: There was a big sign outside the building here that I found out didn’t actually say Mission Control Center; instead, it said, “Everyone follow the leadership of the Great General.”

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The director of the center made a short speech and then specifically called for you to come to the front of the press scrum to witness everything. What was that like for you?
It was certainly flattering, but clearly also an attempt at manipulation because he asked me to endorse his claim that the satellite launch was peaceful. Still, I recognized it as a gesture of respect for the American space program, for which I am the only representative to have ever visited the North Korean space program, though completely unauthorized officially by NASA.

For a while there, it seemed like there were as many North Korean cameras focused on you as foreign ones. Did you expect all that attention today?
No, I didn’t. But when you think about it and realize how desperate the North Koreans are for the appearance of Western approval, they’re bound to look for it wherever they can get it. Just the presence of this press corps, not just me, is interpreted as a sign of foreign respect for the program.

Some might view your presence at the launch center as a convenient propaganda prop for their claims. How do you respond to that?
They certainly felt it was. But I was able to use the visibility to raise some questions they had not yet answered to my satisfaction. I stressed that the boasted transparency of the North Koreans was nowhere near complete and that we didn’t have reliable insight into what was under the nose cone of that rocket.

The director joked about letting one journalist ride on the rocket. I told him that photographs of the installation of the satellite would be enough to dispel lingering suspicions, including in my own mind. He promised to provide them, but I’m not holding my breath.

One of your primary questions over the last couple of days has been how soon after launch would we start to receive radio signals from the satellite to confirm its success. Do you feel you got an adequate answer on that?
Absolutely. The director gave an answer that was totally consistent with my own calculations that it might be up to 12 hours before they get a good solid communications link with the satellite.

In the meantime, he enthusiastically agreed that amateur radio listeners around the world should try to pick up the signal, which he assured us would be broadcast continuously. Of course, it’s to their advantage that a foreign expert confirm the first proof of the satellite’s successful launch since controversy remains over the success of their [previous] satellite launch, which they still insist was successful against all other evidence.

At one point you asked where the equivalent of your old console would be in the control room and he pointed to the orbital information station in the room, a station you manned for many years. That was pretty impressive.
Yeah, I got a kick out of that. But it’s too bad I couldn’t talk to the actual operator. Because there are still interesting – to me, at least – questions about some third-stage rocket steering maneuvers they seem to need during launch to get into their target orbit. We could have had a real geek-level conversation that would have blown the interpreter’s mind.

NBC’s Richard Engel, as well as other Western journalists, continued to ask North Korean officials about the military application of these rockets, but the answers were at times exasperated and sometimes sarcastic. What do you make of it?
We’re really engaged in dual disconnected monologues here, not a real conversation. The North Koreans don’t seem to understand foreign objections and act as if their pure ideological correctness deserves worldwide obedience. They’ve dug themselves deep into the true-believer’s self-delusion that disagreement is caused by stupidity and malice, a bad habit that isn’t restricted to this corner of the world. In the West we have a hard time understanding how genuinely crazy so many North Korean projects – such as this satellite – really may be. 

But isn’t political single-mindedness a plus for advancing a difficult effort such as space exploration?
It might seem so at first, but I’m beginning to worry that the opposite is more likely to turn out to be true.  An effective safety culture in space, or any other high-tech field, demands disobedience and independent thinking from people who detect real problems that require real solutions.

But the official North Korean reaction to difficulties looks like resorting to appeals for divine inspiration from their infallible leadership so they can bully reality to “fit” their intentions. I can’t detect any indications of the necessary kind of critical problem-solving and that’s a bad sign.

Space programs infected by such a pathological culture, whether Soviet-era or NASA pre-Challenger [and pre-Columbia] era, or today’s North Korea, are doomed to encounter major setbacks.  As the bumper sticker warns, when it comes to human fallibility, “Man forgives, God forgives, Nature – never.”

This visit was likely the last satellite-related site we’ll visit before the launch itself. Any final thoughts before we begin the wait for launch time?
Opening these facilities to outside observers still strikes me as a bold and risky tactic, which I welcome. We may be able to utilize it for the good.

As the old song wisely observes, the North Koreans may not get what they WANT from this gambit – foreign approval. But they may get what they NEED – better foreign insight into their motives and decision-making. And that could make it all worthwhile.

Also for radio enthusiasts around the world, this could be your day to shine. The first people who will get a crack at catching the North Korean hymns the satellite will play to honor Kim Il-sung will be those in Western Australia 20 minutes after launch. About an hour after launch, the Eastern seaboard of the United States will be able to listen in.

Radio enthusiasts hoping to listen to catch the sounds from the satellite can tune into 479MHz. North Korean officials say they will play music continuously on that frequency.

 

 

PYONGYANG – Officials from North Korea’s Space Technology Committee held a special press conference for journalists today in the capital, Pyongyang. Among the topics discussed: Ongoing questions regarding the possible arming of North Korea’s rockets and the country’s new five-year plan for space.

NBC News sat down after with 22-year NASA veteran and NBC Space Consultant James Oberg to talk about what we learned from this press conference and what questions remain.

Q: What questions did you have coming into this press conference with the North Korea Space Technology Committee?
A: Perhaps the most interesting one for me was how soon after launch they’ll have success or failure in the form of a radio signal from the satellite. The North Koreans said they couldn’t answer that one.

That puzzled me because the primary responsibility of flight control is knowing when to expect indicators of success or failure like receiving a radio signal. Maybe they were just officials and not workers who care about the details.

The other burning question for me was when the satellite was actually going to be loaded onto the rocket and what else might be underneath the payload shroud [nose cone of the rocket]. What they’ve told us about the payload is only about 25 percent of what we think a rocket can actually carry.

They’ve pulled back so much of the secrecy – which is nice – that leaving this one area of secrecy almost underscores the mystery: Is there anything else under that nose cone.

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Q: Did you have these questions answered?
A: They gave me answers, but the easy proof for their answers, which would be pictures of them loading the satellite, we haven’t seen. I didn’t ask today, but I want to ask for the drawings of the satellite in orbit to see how the solar panels on the satellite unfold or if they do at all.

In regards to the timing of the radio signal and how other radio amateurs around the planet could help detect these signals, they said they would answer tomorrow [North Korean officials told journalists they would be able to visit the Payload Control Center in Pyongyang Wednesday].

I didn’t expect any usable answers, so I didn’t bother to ask about the possible military value of the rocket, but many journalists did.

The only thing we found out from the North Korean answers was how sloppy and unconvincing their protestations of innocence were. It doesn’t make them guilty of having a weapons-related intent, but they missed the opportunity to convincingly refute that global concern.

NBC's Richard Engel answers reader questions from North Korea

Q: If you were a North Korean official today, how would you have handled the outside suspicion of this satellite launch actually being a ballistic test?
A: I would have anticipated exactly that question and prepared an answer that was credible to skeptical experts instead of to their obedient public. For me credible is not just 90 percent transparency, but 100 percent.

The persistence of non-transparent aspects of this launch process seems unnecessary if there is nothing to hide. All it does is fan suspicions rather than soothing them.

Q: Anything surprising or big revelations for you from this press conference?
A: No technical surprises for me. But I was dismayed that when confronted with questions regarding previous satellite launch failures, their officials loyally proclaimed they were successful despite all independent evidence to the contrary. The officials had a chance to walk away from the question, but instead twice confronted it with assertions that the rest of the world’s space experts consider false.

In my mind this is no way to encourage trust. As someone who is here to judge the credibility of the North Korean’s statements, I was ready to look forward and not back at previously discredited propaganda claims. But they just couldn’t let them go and so it weighed heavily in my own assessment of their credibility and in any future statements they make without strong evidence. 

The other big revelation for me was that the North Koreans said they are planning to work on a more sharp-eyed earth observation satellite next.

Q: Let’s talk about that. The North Koreans announced a new five-year plan that included, as you said, an improved observation satellite and also a stunning declaration that they were actually developing a larger rocket. What did you make of these new announcements and how important are they?
A: They gave a plausible explanation for their focus on earth observation satellites, which was due to a series of environmental disasters beginning in the mid-1990s. But this first satellite seems almost too little, too late to be of much help when one considers you can get the same data this satellite could provide for cheaper and sooner from commercial services.

The larger rocket is also consistent with their announced intention to launch satellites for other countries. Rocket launch services are one of the few things North Korea can export that the rest of the world wants. Unfortunately, the Russians already dominate that portion of the space market and they won’t likely yield customers easily.

As for the military threat of any of North Korea’s rockets, including this hypothetical new one, you have to realize that even having only a handful of weaponized versions of these rockets would be intolerable to other countries like the United States.

But in defense of the North Korean’s current rocket, they have spelled out characteristics that a non-threatening rocket should have. Now they have to live up to those standards that they themselves have set. 

Q: Is this particular mission a logical step for a first satellite? 
A: I’ve come to realize that it is. The North Koreans have given a reasonable justification for the kind of mission they say this satellite is performing. They are still building a rocket that seems bigger than they need and are spending more time and effort than if they had sought outside help, but their governmental ideology has once again trumped practicality.

We’re still not sure if this launch isn’t doing other undisclosed experiments, including those associated with future weaponization and they have not provided enough transparency to eliminate that possibility.

Q: In our previous discussion after you visited the Sohae launch site, you expressed reservations about the authenticity of the satellite. Does this press conference change any of your views on the matter?
A: The press conference not so much, but I’ve done some online research and consultations with associates around the world and I’m now satisfied that what they showed us is within the realm of possibility of a plausible design.

My other concern about the late installment of the satellite onto the rocket was directly addressed with an entirely plausible answer: They didn’t even realize they were out of step with standard practice. They simply did not how other space agencies schedule that type of installation. When the North Koreans say they didn’t realize how other countries did it, I can believe it.

Q: Have the North Korean’s explanation about the peaceful application of the satellite changed your view about the potential weaponization of this missile?
A: No, just carrying a peaceful satellite does not negate the weaponization potential of the carrier rocket. They seem to think that having a peaceful satellite makes them immune to all charges of weaponization, but it doesn’t. The rocket science says this booster design retains weapons potential regardless of what you put on top of it.

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North Korea is planning to launch a new satellite within the next week. While North Korea insists that the launch of the Unha-3 rocket will merely put a weather satellite into space, U.S. and international officials are not so sure. They suspect they may be testing a long-range missile.

North Korea invited the international media to come witness the launch and other festivities in honor of the 100^th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.

Richard Engel, NBC News’ Chief Foreign Correspondent, is in Pyongyang, North Korea reporting on the launch. He answered reader questions about the launch and what he’s seen of life in the reclusive country earlier today. The questions and his answers are quite interesting.

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Click on the box below to replay the chat.

 

North Korea has invited international journalists into the reclusive country to witness the launch of what they say is a weather observation satellite using a three-stage rocket in mid-April. The satellite launch is timed to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung. The United States and South Korea say the satellite launch is more likely a thinly disguised test of long-range missile technology.

NBC’s chief foreign correspondent, Richard Engel, science expert James Oberg, producer Ed Flanagan and cameraman David Lom are in North Korea to report on the satellite launch. It provides a rare opportunity to get a glimpse inside the repressive regime as it transitions under its new leader, Kim Jong Un.

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The media’s movements will be closely monitored by North Korean officials. The Yanggakdo Hotel, which was selected to house all the foreign journalists during this week’s celebrations in Pyongyang, is on an island in the middle of the Taedong River and is only accessible by two bridges.

See some of the photos from a massive ceremony in Pyongyang Monday in honor of the unveiling of a new mural of Kim Jong-il, the "Dear Leader," who died last year. There are also some glimpses of ordinary life in North Korea.

NBC News’ Richard Engel will be participating in a LIVE Chat with readers from Pyongyang, North Korea at 10 a.m. ET Tuesday.

Read more from NBC on North Korea's satellite launch: Clues about North Korea's space plans come to light at last

North Korea rocket 'not a military missile...but it's darn close

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