• Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood

    NBC Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel walks through crowded Tahrir Square as demonstrators celebrate the victory of Egypt's first Muslim Brotherhood President.

    Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent writes

    CAIRO, Egypt – The Muslim Brotherhood has won the presidency.  Will it bring a new Egypt?  I can’t see how it won’t.

    This morning a Christian woman I’ve known casually for years came up to me and asked if I could help her seek political asylum in the United States.  Many Christians, women and moderate Muslims worry about the Muslim Brotherhood’s promise to bring Islamic Law.  It’s not a good sign if the day after elections that people are asking how they can escape the country.

    Last night in Tahrir Square Muslim Brotherhood members were celebrating their victory, calling it not a win for democracy, but divine intervention.  They acknowledged that a free vote brought them to power, but saw God’s hand filling the ballot boxes.  

    In an analysis piece last week I asked, if democracy brings a non-democratic party, is that a win for democracy?  Today some Egyptians don’t think so and have considerable buyers’ remorse, feeling the cliché, "be careful of what you wish for."

    Big changes are in store for Egypt now that Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, once banned in Egypt, has won Egypt's first democratic presidential election. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    Egyptians face a new Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood


    In Tahrir Square street vendors now sell badges with Mohammed Morsi's photograph.  Some Egyptians wear them to show support and solidarity, like wearing a U.S. presidential campaign pin.  I bought one.  It’s sitting on my desk now in Cairo.  The laminated badge also has the Muslim Brotherhood’s logo of two crossed swords with a Quran between the blades.  Beneath the swords is a single phrase, “And Prepare.”

    It’s a quote from the Quran which in the light of the Brotherhood’s win deserves elaboration. 

    “And prepare” comes from the Quran’s Chapter 8 on "the spoils of war."  The full quote is:

    “And prepare against them whatever you are able of power and of steeds of war by which you may terrify the enemy of Allah and your enemy and others besides them whom you do not know [but] whom Allah knows. And whatever you spend in the cause of Allah will be fully repaid to you, and you will not be wronged.”

    “And Prepare” means to prepare for battle against God’s enemies. 

    When I think about the Muslim Brotherhood, I remember a hot, sticky evening in 1998 when I was working as a local journalist in Cairo.  I was in the lawyers' syndicate building in central Cairo. 

    The syndicate was, and still is, dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.  I had many contacts there and was a frequent visitor.  That evening, I sat drinking strong coffee with a group of about a half dozen members of the Brotherhood.  We spoke for hours. 

    I remember the conversation vividly because I have had so many just like it.  The Brotherhood members mostly talked about Israel.  They were obsessed with the Mossad, Israel’s powerful spy agency.  According to them, the Mossad ran everything in the Middle East. 

    They also said America was at war with Islam.  They told me Osama bin Laden was an American creation.  They talked about how Jews ran the world, and how the only group as powerful as the Mossad was the "Jewish Lobby" in Washington.  Jews and Israel, they said, used America’s muscle to dominate the Arab world through proxy dictators like Mubarak.  They told me how Israel was deliberately exporting chemicals that spread AIDS and cancer among Egyptians. 

    Eric Trager, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, studies Egyptian opposition groups. He spoke with NBC News' Charlene Gubash about what the Muslim Brotherhood victory means for the U.S. and the region.

    Egypt's Morsi: Bloodshed will not be in vain

    They told me the Americans people, whom they considered decent and God fearing, were ignorant of the games played on them by Jews and their lobby.  One Jewish-Israeli-American conspiracy rolled into the next.  

    I remember thinking all those 15 years ago as I sipped coffee and looked around at the syndicate, I hope these guys don't come to power.  But even then I suspected one day it would happen – there were simply too many Egyptians who thought just like the people drinking coffee in the syndicate.  

    They packed the universities and professional unions.  They wrote the little paperback books sold on blankets on Cairo sidewalks linking Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden, the Bush family, the Jewish Lobby, Freemasons and of course the Mossad in elaborate plots against Egypt and Muslims.  

    There are clearly many Egyptian free-thinkers and intellectuals -- lots of wonderful Egyptian artists and architects and scientists.  But the conversation I was having in the syndicate was much more common.

    Morsi now talks about moderation.  Western diplomats hope he means it and that the Brotherhood will have to become more pragmatic now that it will have to actually run a government.  That could very well happen, but pragmatism seems unlikely to erase a mentality that is deeply ingrained and which will, especially in time of crisis, expose itself sooner or later.

    NBC News: Egypt's ex-dictator Hosni Mubarak slips into coma

    Morsi still has to battle with the military for power.  The military holds key authorities which it took through steps that were probably illegal.  The army’s position looks weaker now that the Brotherhood has won an election that was widely considered free and fair.

    Egypt took a big turn last night.  I hope now the Brotherhood can move beyond a mentality of conspiracies and turn this country into a success.  If it can’t, the Middle East faces a tough road ahead.

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  • Egyptians face a new Egypt under the Muslim Brotherhood

    EPA/MOHAMED MESSARA

    Supporters of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi celebrate in Cairo's Tahrir Square after the Brotherhood claimed victory in the presidential election on Monday.

    Richard Engel writes

    Analysis

     CAIRO, Egypt – It could be the end of Egypt as we know it. Early, still unofficial, but credible results, show that the Muslim Brotherhood has won Egypt’s presidency. 

    However the military has made a series of decrees that threaten to usurp the new president’s power – setting the stage for a major showdown between the remnants of the old regime who make up the ruling military council and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. 

    Still, the biggest country in the Arab world is poised to start its first experiment in Islamic democracy.

    Many Egyptians are celebrating – after all, a majority of voters elected the Muslim Brotherhood’s firebrand candidate Mohammed Morsi.  

    Other Egyptians are calling this a “black day” that will set back Egypt a hundred years.

    Oh, that’s an exaggeration some Egyptians and Middle East analysts argue.   

    The Brotherhood will have to be answerable to future voters, they say. 

    Democracy will keep the group in check, they say. 

    The Brotherhood will be forced to adopt a center of the road policy, they say.

    The Brotherhood is really quite moderate, they say.

    Egypt will end up like Turkey, with an Islamist government, but secular laws, they say.

    If Egyptians don’t like the Brotherhood, protesters can just go back to Cairo’s Tahrir Square and get rid of it, they say.

    I wouldn’t count on it.

    A power struggle is underway between the Egyptian military and the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, which says its candidate, Mohammed Morsi, won the country's first free presidential election. NBC's Richard Engel reports.

    Democracy if undemocratic group comes to power?

    The Muslim Brotherhood is a fundamentalist group. It is anti-American at its core, despite recently sending delegations to the United States to win friends. The Brotherhood is vehemently anti-Israel. The group is also largely anti-democratic. The Brotherhood was happy to use elections to gain power, but it believes wholeheartedly in Islamic law, the immutable rulings from God that are not subject to ballot boxes or opinion polls. 

    Military guards Egypt power as Islamists claim victory

    If democracy brings an undemocratic group to power, is that a victory for democracy?

    The Brotherhood has a few basic tenets which will likely be at the core of future policy, basic truths that shape its worldview. 

    They include:

    • America is at war with Islam.
    • Women are lustful creatures who need to be veiled and controlled. 
    • Israel is a temporary abomination that needs to be – and one day will be – excised from the world.
    • Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group that the U.S. considers a terrorist group, is fighting a heroic struggle.
    • Islamic law is fair to all minorities, including Christians since it proscribes tolerance and protection for people of “the book.”  (Christians, by the way, don’t think they need to be “tolerated” or “protected” which they believe implies they are second class citizens who need to be accepted and defended like village idiots).
    • Secrecy is tantamount. 
    • Victory comes through patience. 

    On the positive side, the Brotherhood is basically a working man’s group that supports Egypt’s legions of poor, often ignored by former President Hosni Mubarak. If Mubarak's former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik had won the election, Egypt would very likely have turned violent, with an unpredictable outcome.

    I also wouldn’t count on Egypt ending up like Turkey. In Istanbul, women often dress provocatively and there are bars on nearly every corner. The country is economically booming. The Muslim Brotherhood is much more hard-line than Turkish Islamists. 

    AP Photo/Ahmed Gomaa

    Mohammed Morsi and his supporters celebrate his apparent victory in the Egyptian presidential election at his campaign headquarters in Cairo, Egypt on Monday.

    Brotherhood vs. military showdown
    The Egyptian military is terrified of the Brotherhood. Morsi has repeatedly said he will purge all parts of Egyptian society of “remnants” of the former regime.

    The military worries that once Morsi is sworn in, he will try to imprison or at least sideline senior military officers. Sunday night, as votes were being counted showing Morsi in the lead, the military launched a controversial preemptive strike.

    In a decree that is very likely illegal, the military declared that the new president does not have the authority to declare war or remove military officers. The military declared its autonomy and immunity in a blatant attempt to castrate the new president before he takes office.  

    The power struggle between Morsi and the military that is now under way will likely take months to sort out. Morsi and the military will battle over the parliament, the constitution and Sunday night’s decree. 

    While it’s too early to know who will win this showdown, it seems unlikely that the military can hang on to its self-appointed authorities – as every Egyptian knows the kinds of powers a president should and should not have. 

    Slideshow: Egypt's revolution and the fall of Mubarak

    Ahmed Youssef / EPA

    Egypt's popular uprising over 18 days of popular protest culminated in the downfall of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on Feb. 11, 2011. CLICK ON THE PHOTO TO SEE A FULL SLIDESHOW

    Launch slideshow

    A new dawn
    It’s a new dawn for Egypt.  If the military truly feels threatened, it might stage a real coup, sending tanks into the streets, instead of what many Egyptians have called its attempted “soft coup,” through decrees and court decisions in recent weeks. 


    The Muslim Brotherhood talks about understanding and moderation. After declaring victory last night, Musri said he will be inclusive. Morsi wants to reassure Egyptians and Egypt’s allies that the country will remain stable.  If pushed, however, the Muslim Brotherhood’s true colors will show. 

    Good luck, Egypt! Critical choices and potential major changes lie ahead.

    Already Monday, Shafik’s campaign started contesting the early, unofficial results, as Egypt hangs in the balance. 

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