Headline from our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: A marginal -- but not substantial -- improvement for Romney since last week’s debate… In Ohio, Obama leads among those who have already voted by 2-to-1 margin… Tonight’s main event: Biden vs. Ryan… And College Man: Obama hits his fifth-straight college campus when he visits the University of Miami (FL) at 3:25 pm ET, while Romney campaigns in North Carolina at 6:00 pm ET.

DANVILLE, Ky. -- So how much did the political environment change after last week's presidential debate as we head into tonight's VP showdown here in Kentucky? According to our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of three of the most important battleground states, it changed at the margins -- but not substantially. A week ago, right before the debate, our NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Florida had President Obama with a one-point lead among likely voters, 47%-46%; now it is still one point, 48%-47%. In Ohio, Obama was ahead by eight points; now it is by six, 51%-45%. And in Virginia, Obama had a two-point edge last week, 48%-46%; now it is Romney by one, 48%-47%. So our poll shows some improvement for the GOP presidential nominee, but we seem to be back to where we were before the conventions: It's a very close race with Obama still enjoying a structural edge in the battleground states. And why was there only a little change in these surveys -- conducted Oct. 7-9 -- since last week’s debate? These numbers probably tell the story: More than 90% of the likely voters in these three states say they made up their minds BEFORE the debate. Here is a question to be asked: Is Romney over-performing in national polls and under-performing in the battlegrounds? Sure seems like it.

Slideshow: Biden on the campaign trail

Slideshow: Ryan on the campaign trail

*** Other examples: Here are more examples of marginal change since the first debate, per our NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: Obama's favorable ratings remain above 50% in all three states among likely voters (51% in Ohio and Virginia and 52% in Florida), and his overall job-approval numbers among registered voters are near 50% (48% in Florida and Virginia and 47% in Ohio). Meanwhile, Romney saw his fav/unfav rating tick up in Florida and Virginia (to 49%-44%), but it still remains under water in Ohio (44%-50%). And brand-new New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac polls also show a marginal improvement for Romney. In Colorado, it’s Romney 48% Obama 47% vs. Obama 48% Romney 47% from a month ago. But in Virginia, they have Obama ahead, 51-46% vs. what they had before, Obama 50% Romney 46%. And in Wisconsin, it’s Obama 50% Romney 47% vs. Obama 51% Romney 45%. Bottom line: There has been some battleground-state improvement for Romney, but not a significant amount. Essentially, we’re back to where things were before the conventions -- which is a close race that slightly favors the president. 

Charles Dharapak / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney takes a picture for well-wishers after an unscheduled stop at a Chipotle restaurant in Denver, Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012.

*** A deep dive into Ohio: Our new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll also provides two explanations why Obama maintains his lead in the Buckeye State. One is early voting. According to the survey, nearly 1 in 5 respondents have already voted in Ohio, and Obama is winning them by a 63%-37% margin; among those who plan to vote on Election Day, Romney is leading, 52%-42%. What also helps to explain the president’s advantage is party ID. Last week, it was D+5 among likely voters; this week it’s D+11. But here is something else to chew on: 46% of likely voters in the survey describe themselves as conservative (when it was 35% in 2008, per the exit poll). So while the poll’s party ID in Ohio was more Democratic than last week, it was also much more conservative. Meantime, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Virginia was more Republican. 

*** Biden vs. Ryan: Today’s main event, of course, is the Joe Biden-vs.-Paul Ryan debate here in Danville, KY. According to Pew, 40% expect Ryan to perform better in the debate, while 34% expect Biden to do better. Ryan also enjoys a stronger fav/unfav rating (44%-40%) than Biden does (39%-51%) in the survey. Our most recent national NBC/WSJ poll shows similar fav/unfav numbers: 37%-33% for Ryan and 37%-38% for Biden. As we wrote yesterday, Biden has more pressure on him going into the debate, but Ryan has the higher expectations, especially among base conservatives. And a question: Just how many will tune in to the debate? We’re putting the over-under at 40 million. Remember, there are two MLB playoff games tonight, as well as Steelers-Titans NFL football game.

Slideshow: On the Trail 

*** The skinny on tonight’s debate: Both Biden and Ryan will be seated. And moderator Martha Raddatz of ABC will ask questions built around nine topics (at 10 minutes per topic), and the questions will alternate between domestic and foreign policy. And that means Libya will come up. Here’s how Bloomberg describes yesterday’s congressional hearing on the topic: “Requests for additional security at the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, before the Sept. 11 attack were rejected by the State Department because of a desire to convey ‘normalization,’ the Republican chairman of a House panel [Darrell Issa] said.” Yesterday was not a good day for the Obama administration, nor the Clinton State Department. We still don’t know the basic answer to this question: Why, five days after the attack, did Susan Rice get briefed incorrectly? Obviously, some critics of the administration want to be believe the worst -- that it was on purpose. But do we really think the administration thought that story would hold? More troubling, it seems, was the intelligence failure, both on the front end (no warning) and on the backend (too long to figure out what happened). And it appears a lot of good old fashioned CYA – a legacy the intelligence community has been trying to shake for a decade.

*** College man: Before tonight’s debate, President Obama holds a rally at the University of Miami (FL) at 3:25 pm ET. By our count, this is the president’s FIFTH-straight event at a college campus in the past week -- the others were at the University of Wisconsin (WI), George Mason University (VA), Cleveland State (OH), and Ohio State (OH). Meanwhile, Romney campaigns in Asheville, NC at 6:00 pm ET.

*** The Senate numbers: Lastly, here are the Senate numbers from our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls: In Florida, it’s Bill Nelson 52%, Connie Mack 39%; in Ohio, it’s Sherrod Brown 52%, Josh Mandel 41%; and in Virginia, it’s Tim Kaine 47%, George Allen 46%. 

Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 5 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day: 26 days

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The self-described Atlanta-based "oppo researcher" who helped broker the release of the secret video that has rocked the Romney campaign got a congratulatory email today from his famous grandfather -- former President Jimmy Carter.

James Carter IV told NBC News in an interview that, starting late last month, he tracked down the source who took the secret Romney video via Twitter --  and then in a series of messages encouraged him to release the full tape to Mother Jones magazine.

After emailing his grandfather the magazine's story about the tape -- under the subject, "Huge campaign news," and calling it "my biggest story yet" -- the former president wrote back at 7:16 am Tuesday: "James: This is extraordinary. Congratulations! Papa."

"I'm proud of my role in being able to track him down," James Carter, 35,  said about the source who took the video. "I'm a partisan Democrat. My motivation is to help Democrats get elected. If there is anything I can find in any race, I try to do that."

Related: Leaked video is the latest hit for Romney

But Carter also confirmed there is a personal side to the backstory of the campaign video: he was especially motivated, he said, because of Romney's frequent attacks on the presidency of his grandfather, including the GOP candidate's comparisons to the "weak" foreign policy of Carter and Barack Obama.

"It gets under my skin -- mostly the weakness on the foreign policy stuff," Carter said. "I just think it's ridiculous. I don’t like criticism of my family."

Carter said he is currently unemployed and has not been paid for his work by the Obama campaign or any other political organization. What motivated him at first was Romney's role at Bain Capital and the controversy over whether the GOP candidate as a businessman had invested in companies that outsourced jobs overseas.

Carter had focused, in particular, on Bain Capital's 1998 investment -- while Romney was still chief executive -- in Global Tech Appliances, a Chinese manufacturing company. Carter was listed as providing "research assistance" to a July 11 story about the investment by David Corn, Mother Jones' Washington bureau chief and an MSNBC contributor.

Related: Romney: Secretly recorded remarks 'not elegantly stated'

Then, in late August, just before the Republican convention, Carter spotted a YouTube link to a brief video clip in which Romney talks about his investment in a Chinese company. The link was posted under the name "Rachel Maddow" but was quickly taken down because the poster had no relationship to the MSNBC host.

The video then reappeared on YouTube under a different account -- "Anne Onymous." Carter said he was fascinated by the video -- and figured there had to be more to Romney's talk.

"It was just weird video to all of a sudden come across,” he said. “It was all very strange and it piqued my curiosity," he said.

Carter Tweeted a link to the video -- and then soon noticed he had a new follower named "Anne Onymous."

"I recognized it" -- and then messaged the follower back, resulting in a series of exchanges in which he encouraged the poster to come forward and give the full video to Corn.

The source who took the video has confirmed to NBC News that it was taken at a May 17 $50,000-a-plate fundraiser at the Boca Raton, Fla., home of private-equity mogul Marc Leder, chief executive of Sun Capital Advisors.

Leder has given $225,000 to Restore Our Future, the pro-Romney Super PAC, in addition to raising money for Romney's presidential campaign. He has also been the subject of controversy after a report in the New York Post last year -- under the headline "Nude Frolic in Tycoon's Pool" -- about a wild party at his Bridgehampton mansion in which, according to the Post's account, "guests cavorted nude in the pool" and scantily clad Russian dancers performed on platforms.

Leder has not responded to a request for comment from NBC News.

LONDON-- Mitt Romney said Wednesday that more restrictive gun laws would likely not have prevented last week's deadly mass shooting at a Colorado Cineplex, and argued that it would take Americans changing their hearts, not their legislation, to prevent similar future attacks.

"Political implications, legal implications are something which will be sorted out down the road," Romney told NBC's Brian Williams during an exclusive interview here in London. "But I don't happen to believe that America needs new gun laws. A lot of what this young man did was clearly against the law. But the fact that it was against the law did not prevent it from happening."

Romney, who enacted an assault weapons ban as governor of Massachusetts (with the support of a Democratic legislature) would not say whether he still believes that weapons like the AR-15 assault rifle used in the Colorado shooting were "instruments of destruction with the sole purpose of hunting down and killing people," as he described them during the bill signing ceremony in 2002.

When Williams followed up later in the interview on the Aurora attack, Romney argued that it would take a change in heart, not laws, to stop future violence.

"Well, this person shouldn't have had any kind of weapons and bombs and other devices and it was illegal for him to have many of those things already. But he had them," Romney said, although the guns used in the shooting were all purchased legally.

"And so we can sometimes hope that just changing the law will make all bad things go away. It won't. Changing the heart of the American people may well be what's essential, to improve the lots of the American people."

NBC News

NBC's Brian Williams interviews Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in London on Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Romney used the interview to shore up several policy and strategic positions laid out by his campaign in recent weeks, reiterating that he would only release two years of tax returns so as not to provide fodder for Democratic operatives to " twist and distort and to turn in different directions and try and make a big deal out of." He also repeated the major planks of his economic plan, which he says differentiates him from the last Republican president, George W. Bush.

Williams also asked the candidate about controversial comments on the front page of a British newspaper, reportedly given by an unnamed Romney adviser, who called President Barack Obama a "novice" in foreign affairs, and said the Democrat did not fully value the "Anglo-Saxon" nature of the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom.

“We are part of an Anglo-Saxon heritage, and he feels that the special relationship is special. The White House didn’t fully appreciate the shared history we have,” the adviser is quoted telling the Daily Telegraph.

Earlier today, Romney spokesperson Andrea Saul flatly denied the comments came from anyone inside the Romney camp, or that those views were shared by the former Massachusetts governor. Romney said he was generally "not enthusiastic" about adopting the comments of unnamed advisers in newspaper stories, and pointed out he gets "advice" every day along rope lines and on the street.

“But I can tell you that we have a very special relationship between the United States and Great Britain," Romney said. "It goes back to our very beginnings, cultural … and historical. But I also believe the president understands that. So I don't know agree with whoever that advisor might be. But do agree that we have a very common bond between ourselves and Great Britain."

When it comes to selecting a vice presidential nominee to join him on the Republican ticket, Romney told Williams he has still not made a final decision, and confirmed that he would not be announcing his pick until at least next week, after he returns from his week-long trip abroad.

"While I'm overseas, I'm not gonna announce my vice presidential running mate. But when the decision is made, I'll make that announcement. It's not made yet," Romney said. "I can't tell you when it's gonna be. That's … that's something which we'll decide down the road."

This visit was timed to coincide with the opening ceremonies of the 2012 Olympics, where Ann Romney’s horse, Rafalca, is competing in the equestrian sport of dressage. Will the presumptive GOP nominee be cheering it on?

"I have to tell you, this is Ann's sport. I'm not even sure which day the sport goes on," Romney said. "She will get the chance to see it, I will not be watching  the event.  I hope her horse does well.  But just the honor of being here and representing our country and seeing the other Olympians is something which I'm sure the people that are associated with this are looking forward to."

In an exclusive interview with NBC's Brian Williams, presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney discussed gun laws in the wake of the Aurora shooting:

WILLIAMS: "On things however like Aurora, Colorado, do you see why Americans get frustrated at politics.  They can see and hear your words from earlier in their career, people are hurting out there. Perhaps they want to start a national conversation about whether an AR-15 belongs in the hands of a citizen, whether a citizen should be able to buy 6-thousand rounds off the internet. You see the argument?"

Anthony Quintano/NBC News

NBC's Brian Williams interviews Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in London on Wednesday, July 25, 2012

ROMNEY: "Well this person shouldn't have had any kind of weapons and bombs and other devices and it was illegal for him to have many of those things already. But he had them. And so we can sometimes hope that just changing the law will make all bad things go away. It won't. Changing the heart of the American people may well be what's essential, to improve the lots of the American people."

The full interview airs tonight on NBC Nightly News.