The United Nations General Assembly is sponsoring  a three-day "High Level Meeting" on AIDS aimed at assessing progress over the past five years. More than a dozen heads of state and some 100 ministers are scheduled to participate. First Lady Laura Bush is heading the U.S. delegation and is expected to attend sessions on Friday, when a political declaration is expected to be adopted. Also attending the  meeting are more than 1,000 representatives of civil society and the private sector. During the conference, a report on efforts by member states to combat the epidemic will be presented and governments will consider recommendations on how to scale-up HIV prevention, treatment and care in order to possibly attain universal access to treatment by 2010.

Darfur Assessment Mission
Despite confusing statements by some Sudanese officials, U.N. officials say a U.N. Peacekeeping Assessment Mission is expected to head to Khartoum late this week. U.N. troubleshooter Lakhdar Brahimi had meetings last week with the Sudanese president and others opening the way to cautious optimism about the prospects of a transition from an under-equipped African Union peacekeeping effort to a larger, better-equipped U.N.-led operation. U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan told reporters Tuesday that he believed such a U.N. force could be ready in four months. Much, however, will depend on how quickly member states contribute troops to the proposed mission. However, it is still far from clear if Sudan will eventually give the green light to the U.N. operation.

Security Council trip to Sudan
To help coax the Sudanese government into saying yes to the mission, Security Council diplomats are departing this Sunday for a week-long visit to Sudan. The mission will be headed by British Ambassador Emyr Jones Parry and his French counterpart. The trip includes meetings with key officials in the capital city of Khartoum and visits to Darfur and Juba in the south, as well a trip to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to meet with African-Union officials regarding the transition to a U.N. force.

Before they head to Sudan, Security Council members will take part in an annual two-day retreat with Annan to discuss their work.

The Security Council is awaiting the outcome of several key meetings regarding Darfur and Iran that are taking place outside of U.N. headquarters this week before contemplating its next moves. 

Last Tuesday, the council unanimously approved a resolution giving Sudan one week to open its doors to a U.N. military assessment team wanting to plan a peacekeeping operation for Darfur. Khartoum had ignored an earlier U.N. request for access to the troubled region for several months and the hope was that a Security Council demand would force the government to say yes to the mission.  But, so far, that has not happened. To help press the case, recently-retired U.N. troubleshooter Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian foreign minister, is expected to hold talks in Khartoum on Wednesday and Thursday with Sudan's president and other top officials. Brahimi, who recently served as U.N. envoy for Afghanistan and Iraq, is accompanied by U.N. peacekeeping official, Hedi Annabi of Tunisia. They hope to convince Khartoum of the need to cooperate with the U.N. planning mission and to agree to such a U.N. force.  The African Union, of which Sudan is a member, gave its blessing last week to a transition from an African force in Darfur to a U.N. operation.

Permanent Security Council members and Germany are scheduled to meet in London on Wednesday to discuss a package of incentives aimed at persuading Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment efforts and come clean to the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency about its controversial nuclear program. In separate meetings in Washington, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is expected to talk with top U.S. officials Wednesday about Iran's nuclear ambitions. They include U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley and Intelligence Chief John Negroponte.

The U.N. Security Council is expected to deal with several important international issues this week, including the future of Darfur and pressing Syria to recognize Lebanon's independence (after decades of occupation).

Today, the U.S. is expected to push for a vote on a draft resolution that would set a one-week deadline for Sudan to permit a joint African Union-U.N. military assessment team to visit Darfur. The aim is to evaluate requirements for a transition from an African peacekeeping mission to a larger, better-equipped U.N. force. So far, Khartoum has refused entry and has not agreed to such an operation.

On Wednesday, Washington hopes to secure adoption of a draft resolution,co-sponsored with  Britain and France, regarding Lebanon. It would strongly encourage Syria to respond to Lebanon's request to demarcate their common border and establish diplomatic relations. The proposed measure would also endorse a recent U.N. report that, among other things, urges Syria and Iran to cooperate in helping Beirut to restore its political independence and disarm Hezbollah militias. The report says that Hezbollah "maintains close ties" with both Syria and Iran.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan is in Asia this week visiting heads of state and other high-ranking officials in South Korea, Japan, China, Vietnam and Thailand. On his agenda: urging support from Asian leaders for major U.N. management reform. He's also expected to discuss stalled efforts to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. While it's widely believed that the next Secretary General will likely hail from Asia, before leaving for the trip, Annan said he would steer clear of discussions on who would be a good successor. His term expires Dec. 31, 2006.

Iran and U.N. reform promise to be the most divisive issues members will face this week and in the weeks ahead. How to deal with the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region and a future U.N. role there is also likely to occupy a lot of diplomatic energy.

Iran's nuclear program
Tehran's rejection last Friday of the Security Council's March 29 statement calling for Iran to halt its uranium enrichment efforts has returned the issue to the Security Council and diplomatic efforts have moved into high gear. However, much of the maneuvering and negotiations are likely to take place in private here in New York as well as in capitals around the globe. The five veto-wielding Security Council members -- the US, Britain, France, Russia and China -- are expected to take the lead in coming up with a next step toward Iran. On Tuesday, May 2, for example, senior officials representing the P5 plus Germany are scheduled to meet in Paris for a face-to-face meeting on the issue. Following that, the council is likely to formally take up the issue for the first time, according to western officials.

The U.S., Britain and France have indicated they plan to introduce a Chapter 7 draft resolution this week. The resolution would make the council's demand on Iran to suspend its nuclear enrichment activities and answer important questions about Tehran's nuclear program legally binding on Iran, with a possible new deadline for compliance. But they are not expected to press for imposing sanctions, even limited sanctions, at this time. China and Russia, however, have still been signaling that they do not want strong council action and how far they are willing to go is not yet clear. Over the weekend, Russian President Vladimir Putin urged that the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna play the leading role in the dispute with Iran instead of the Security Council. Thus, given the apparent differences among the big powers, diplomats forecast difficult and perhaps lengthy negotiations before a possible compromise can be struck. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies have not ruled out pushing ahead with possible economic or other measures in the future outside the Security Council if Russia and China block council action.

Darfur
A U.N. Security Council-backed April 30 deadline for concluding a peace agreement between Sudan's government and rebel leaders has just passed and what happens in the days ahead will no doubt have an impact on further Security Council efforts regarding Darfur. This includes prospects for a new robust U.N. force to take over operations in the fall from an African Union operation on the ground. Khartoum has said it wants a peace agreement before it considers approval for such a move.

UN Reform
Last Friday, a powerful bloc of developing countries blocked management reform proposals in a key U.N. budget committee that would have given the secretary general more authority in running the organization. The reforms -- favored by major donor countries who largely foot the U.N. bill -- would have the impact of taking away some power from the U.N. General Assembly, where developing nations command the numerical majority. The vote came after days of bitter debate between rich nations and developing countries, including China. This week, the budget committee's resolution could be put to the full General Assembly for a possible vote. The sharp divisions over management reform between those who largely fund the U.N. and the majority of its members have raised concerns about a looming financial crisis if some major donors like the U.S. and Japan decide to hold back their dues in June. At that time, members are expected to assess how much progress has been made toward reforming U.N. management, which was criticized during the U.N. oil-for-food investigation. The U.S. contributes 22 percent of the regular U.N. budget: Japan provides nearly 2 percent. In total, wealthy countries provide more than 80 percent of the budget.

It appears that decision time is getting closer for the United Nations on a number of important international issues this week, including a U.S. push for the U.N. Security Council to impose targeted sanctions against four Sudanese nationals accused of human rights violations in Darfur. Washington could force a vote on the issue in the coming days, according to U.S. officials.

Last Tuesday, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton circulated a draft resolution that would authorize travel and financial sanctions against a Sudanese military commander, two rebel commanders and one Janjaweed  chief. So far, China -- which is a major trading partner and importer of Sudanese oil -- and Russia have opposed such sanctions, maintaining they could hurt the prospects of peace talks underway in Abuja, Nigeria (which are to conclude by April 30). A vote on the draft resolution, which most council members support, would force China and Russia to take a public stand on the matter by blocking the sanctions or allowing them to go through. However, if a vote takes place this week, the U.S. is also expected to simultaneously press for a council statement that would express support for the peace talks, in an effort to address Chinese and Russian concerns and possibly avert a veto.

U.N. Management Reform: A U.N. General Assembly budget committee has been intensely discussing a draft resolution proposed last week by a group of developing countries who want to delay approval of a reform plan by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to overhaul certain management procedures. The U.S. and most major contributors to the U.N. largely favor Annan's management plan and oppose the draft resolution. Many developing countries believe the Annan plan would reduce their influence. Amb. Bolton has warned that assembly adoption would amount to a rejection of the secretary general's plan and deal a strong blow to the U.N. reform process.

Iran: The clock is ticking as Security Council members await the release of a key report on Iran's nuclear program.  International Atomic Energy Chief Mohammed Elbaradei is to report by Friday whether Iran has complied with IAEA demands to halt uranium enrichment (which Tehran has so far rejected) and answer important questions about its nuclear efforts. A long and difficult negotiation in May on how the Security Council will respond to the report is forecast by diplomats. At this point, Russia and China are opposed to strong measures, (including sanctions) against Iran if lack of compliance is reported. But it is not yet clear if Moscow and Beijing would agree to a council resolution that would make mandatory what the council has so far only "urged" Iran to do in its March 29 statement that imposed the April 28 deadline.

Iran is on the minds of many in the UN Security Council this week. UN Diplomats are awaiting a report by IAEA Chief Mohamed Elbaradei due by the end of next week and  engaging in private discussions and strategy sessions in New York and around the world.  However, Iran is largely a major issue for next week's official UN agenda. 

This week, the Security Council has a busy formal agenda of closed-door consultations and open briefings on a range of issues. Meetings will cover other Middle East issues, such as violence between Israelis and Palestinians and the missing Kuwaiti prisoners of war from the 1991 Gulf War, African conflicts in Darfur and the Ivory Coast, as well as Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Monthly luncheon: Security Council members meet with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan Monday for their monthly luncheon to discuss issues on the UN agenda. Annan's just back from a visit to Spain and the Hague in the Netherlands.

Darfur: the Council is expected to be briefed by the African Union's mediator Salim A. Salim  on Tuesday(postponed from last week) on the latest developments involving peace talks and efforts to resolve the 3-year long conflict.  Last week, the  Security Council demanded that an agreement be reached between the Sudanese Government and rebels from Darfur by April 30. In addition, Council members are considering limited sanctions against 4 Sudanese from all sides involved in the Darfur conflict who are viewed as obstructing the peace process and violating human rights. . The US, Britain, and most council members back the sanctions. However, if China, Russia, or Qatar( who have previously expressed opposition to such a move) stick to their guns, the sanctions cannot be imposed. Such sanctions would require unanimity among council members to become effective.

Neighboring Chad:
There is growing concern about violence against Darfurian refugees in nearby Chad and a deterioration in relations between Sudan and Chad.

Later in the week, a new report by UN Special Envoy Terje Roede Larsen on the state of implementation of Security Council resolution 1559 is due. (In September 2004, the US and France co-sponsored the measure which, among other things, calls for Syria to end its occupation of Lebanon and for the disarming of Hezbollah militia in the country.

On Thursday, Council members are scheduled to hold closed-door consultations on the work of a council committee addressing the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan is still abroad in Spain and then he's off to the Netherlands where, among other things, he will take part in the 60th anniversary commemoration of the U.N.'s International Court of Justice in The Hague. Meanwhile, here at the U.N. in New York, diplomats and UN staff enjoy a short week (The U.N. takes Good Friday as a holiday). 

African issues dominate this week: Council members are still trying to hammer out an agreement on how to authorize the transfer of the war crimes trial of former Liberian president Charles Taylor to the Netherlands from Sierra Leone for security reasons. Thorny legal questions and issues aimed at ensuring that he not be able to challenge his arrest and trial in The Hague need to be resolved before council action.  In addition, further funding and security have to be agreed upon. (Already, some $14 million is needed for the Special Court in Sierra Leone and last Friday Annan renewed an urgent appeal to member states for voluntary contributions.)

On Thursday, the council is scheduled to hold an open briefing to be followed by closed-door consultations on the latest developments in Darfur. Taking part will be the African Union's chief mediator for Darfur peace talks, Salim Ahmed Salim, who is to update council members regarding recent talks held in Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts are still underway on how to transition an African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur to an eventual U.N.-run mission in the fall. Also, the U.N.'s chief emergency relief official, Jan Egeland, was prevented last week by the Sudanese government from visiting Darfur to evaluate humanitarian conditions. The Sudanese government has indicated that he would be permitted to visit in the future but so far, U.N. officials say, there has been no formal invitation.

Extension of the U.N.'s peacekeeping mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea is also on the schedule. The current mandate expires this weekend.

Other issues: The International Atomic Energy Association's director, Mohamed Elbaradei, is expected in Tehran for a short visit to meet with Iran's nuclear negotiator and other government officials. Elbaradei is due to report by April 28 on Iran's compliance with U.N. Security Council demands to halt all uranium enrichment activities and clarify outstanding questions about its nuclear efforts. He said last week that his nuclear monitoring agency needs to understand certain important issues before it "could be satisfied that all activities in Iran are exclusively for peaceful purposes." He described its current state of knowledge as "hazy."

Newly-appointed Deputy Secretary General Mark Malloch Brown makes his debut as the U.N.'s second highest-ranking official this week. Formerly Secretary General Kofi Annan's chief of staff and head of the U.N. Development Program, Malloch Brown, from Great Britain, is expected to hit the ground running. A top priority is expected to be pushing forward U.N. reform efforts.

This month the U.N. Security Council is headed by China and diplomats do not expect Beijing to play an activist role in launching new thematic initiatives, as some governments have done while serving in the very visible post.

Issues to watch on the council's agenda this week include:

Charles Taylor: possible Security Council authorization for a change of venue for the war crimes trial of the former Liberian president. Britain has circulated a draft resolution (with U.S. backing) that would move his trial from Sierra Leone to the Netherlands for security reasons. Officials from the Special Court in Sierra Leone, where the former warlord faces charges related to atrocities committed during Sierra Leone's decade-long civil war, requested the move.

Darfur: Last month, the council committed itself to transitioning an African Union force in Darfur into a U.N.-run peacekeeping mission next fall (subject to Sudan's approval). Now, it awaits a plan of possible options from Secretary General Annan (who has played a leading role in moving efforts forward) due later in the month. Meanwhile, the U.N.'s top emergency relief chief, Jan Egeland, has so far been denied authorization by Sudan to visit the country to assess humanitarian needs and meet with officials.

Iran: Likely remains in the background this week after the council's decision last week to demand that Tehran suspend its uranium enrichment efforts and comply fully with International Atomic Energy Agency demands to clarify questions regarding its nuclear activities. A report by IAEA chief Mohamed Elbaradei is not due until the end of April (although at this point Western diplomats and others are not anticipating full Iranian compliance).

Annan is expected to travel abroad later this week to Spain to meet with the top executives of U.N. agencies and then to the Hague in the Netherlands, home to the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court and the war-crimes tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

Again this week, the U.N. Security Council will focus on how to react to the International Atomic Energy Agency's report of Iran's failure to meet demands that it halt uranium enrichment and make clear that its nuclear program is not geared toward possibly creating an atomic bomb. But according to a knowledgeable western diplomat here, ongoing efforts to reach a successful agreement are not likely to bear fruit until later in the week, at the earliest. And, so far, diplomats have not given up on securing a so-called presidential statement, which requires consensus among all 15 members. (If unanimity becomes impossible, however, the option remains of seeking a "resolution," which would be voted upon and force nations to take a public stand, including casting a veto.)

Discussions and negotiations -- aimed mainly at getting Russia and China's approval of a draft statement -- are in high gear both in New York and among senior officials in the respective capitals of the five permanent veto-wielding Security Council members -- namely, Beijing, London, Moscow, Paris and Washington. Germany is also supporting the allied proposal and diplomats are confident that the 10 non-permanent council members, who sit on the council for two-year terms, will likely back a statement.

Several sticking points still divide the major powers. Russia is insisting that a council statement call for the IAEA's chief, Mohammed Elbaradei, to report back on Iran's compliance with demands at the next regularly-scheduled IAEA board of governors meeting in June and not in two weeks as the U.S., U.K. and France initially proposed.

Moscow also wants a council statement to be short (and not repeat the demands on Iran laid out in various IAEA resolutions) and not to refer to Iran's activities as being a possible threat to international peace and security, for fear the statement could become a "stepping stone" to council enforcement, including sanctions or more.

Late last week, the "unofficial" odds for a presidential statement, according to political insiders here, had dropped to 50-50. This week, western diplomats seem cautiously optimistic. A new round of talks among P5 foreign ministers and Germany, including U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, is scheduled for this Thursday in Berlin.

What to do about Iran's disputed nuclear program is the big question of the week at the United Nations, although the Security Council has a full plate of other issues as well, ranging from dealing with Darfur to mission in Afghanistan, Burundi and Liberia.

It's almost two weeks now since the IAEA board of governors referred Iran to the Security Council and today senior diplomats from the P-5 nations plus Germany are meeting in New York, outside the U.N. framework, to try to resolve a deadlock over future strategy. All apparently agree that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons, but major differences still abound over how to achieve that goal.

What comes out of today's meeting of political directors in New York (including U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns) could help clear the way for a Security Council initial response to the crisis, but it seems unlikely to resolve the deep-seated reluctance by Russia and China (allies of Iran) to ramp up the pressure if Tehran does not agree to demands to stop enriching uranium. Additional discussions and talks are likely in the offing.

On Friday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton said Security Council members were closer to agreement on a possible council text that would, among other things, call for a report by the IAEA director on Iranian compliance with board demands regarding its nuclear program. The U.S., Britain and France had initially favored a 14-day time frame, but diplomats expect that could be lengthened as a concession. China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya indicated his country (and possibly Russia since it is thought they are working together on this) could accept "at least 4 weeks to 6 weeks." Both nations have made it clear that they want the U.N.'s nuclear agency to play the lead in handling the Iranian crisis and the Security Council to "reinforce," but not take it over, from the IAEA. The U.S. says this is a test for the Security Council.

Meanwhile, the clock continues to tick and that 14-day progress report proposed nearly two weeks ago by the British has now effectively turned into a month. French Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere last Thursday stressed the urgency of the council reaching an agreement soon. He said "time is running out." Interestingly, the French mission to the U.N. gave background briefings to reporters last week on the technical aspects of the nuclear process.

The Security Council has a full agenda this week dealing with conflicts and problems in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. On Monday, council members consult behind closed doors on the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region. Last week, the African Union (AU) announced its intent to transition its peacekeeping mission to a better-equipeed and high-tech U.N. operation. But the Sudanese government opposes a quick handover and instead it appears that the AU force will stay in place for six more months. Many council members, including the U.S., had been hoping for a clear blessing by the AU for such a transition, in the hope of ending the bloodshed in Darfur, which the U.S. has called "genocide."

Iran: How the Security Council will respond to Iran's nuclear program now that the IAEA has clearly referred the matter to the council will no doubt be a central focus of the week, although the outcome is not clear. The five permanent Security Council members -- the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China -- have been holding private meetings in an effort to agree on a draft presidential statement that the full council will possibly consider and approve this week. The U.S., Britain and France have been pressing for a strong statement that would demand Iran cooperate fully with IAEA requirements, which include halting its uranium enrichment efforts, and possibly ask for a new report by the IAEA about Iran's compliance in the weeks ahead. Russia, meanwhile, has been stressing that the IAEA, not the Council, should still take the lead in dealing with Iran and has pressed for weaker council action and further negotiations. However, Tehran's weekend decision to apparently spurn Moscow's compromise offer to help enrich uranium for Iran on Russian territory, a proposal supported by the U.S. and EU, might have an impact on negotiations.

In any case, diplomats note that the Council will move gradually and deliberately in its actions.  Sanctions are not viewed as an option at this point, although U.S. Ambassador John Bolton and other U.S. officials have hinted that if Iran does not cooperate and the council does not eventually take "vigorous" action to pressure Iran, then it might be necessary to turn to its allies to impose possible targeted sanctions.

Also on the council calendar this week are public briefings by Secretary General Kofi Annan's special representative for Iraq, Ashraf Qazi, and the head of the U.N. investigation into the assassination last year of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.  Meanwhile, Kofi Annan, who periodically travels abroad to meet with world leaders in their countries, is on a two-week trip to Africa.

Two meetings taking place outside the United Nations in New York will greatly impact the work of the Security Council in the weeks ahead. The first is the crucial and expected week-long International Atomic Energy Agency board meeting in Vienna, Austria, where 35 members will determine if Iran is indeed referred to the Security Council for council action regarding its refusal so far to comply with board demands to renounce uranium enrichment and agree to the additional protocol of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that permits surprise inspections.

As the board opened its session Monday, IAEA director Mohammed Elbaradei of Egypt held out cautious hope that a diplomatic agreement was still possible with Russia and others and a referral might be avoided.  Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton has accused Iran of engaging in "doublespeak" during the negotiations. Bolton says Iran has been "flatly refusing" to give up its ambitions for a nuclear weapons program.

In any case, diplomats at the U.N. say the Security Council (because of differences among the 15 members) would deal with Iran's nuclear activities in "various stages" if the issue comes before them.  The first step would likely be closed-door consultations. Last week, some diplomats (including British Amb. Emyr Jones Parry) were expecting that initial Security Council action would include "backing up" IAEA demands on Iran and demanding immediate compliance. But as one diplomat put it, "if they don't, then the $64,000 question is what would the council do next?"

The second key meeting outside the U.N. is that of the African Union on Friday. The union will decide whether to approve the transfer of its 7,000-member force in Darfur to the U.N. The AU had previously agreed in principle to do so, but heavy lobbying by the Sudanese government against it has been underway. U.N. and U.S. officials want a U.N. takeover, believing that a larger, more mobile operation with air power would be more effective in dealing with the violence and atrocities in Darfur. However, most council members want the AU's blessing. Sudan has warned that if a U.N. operation (with possible Western help) is based in Darfur, al-Qaida might return to the country.   

Meanwhile, Security Council members have their work cut out for them this week dealing with an array of other issues and conflicts ranging from Somalia (which is still without a central government and security and humanitarian conditions are deteriorating) to the future status of Kosovo. They have their monthly lunch with U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan on Friday.